IRES 2016

Why India

Indian Economy , whose size is $2 trillion as of now, is poised to overtake the combined GDP of Japan and Germany in the next four years on the back of recent policy reforms and improved confidence

Much of this growth is poised to be supported by the Infrastructure sector. As half of the population is under 30, there is going to be a strong demand for housing & commercial space leading to appreciation in rates across categories.

No doubt, supply shall match the growth pace, but quality infrastructure will always be the preferred choice

Real estate sector to see pick up in sales in 2016

Most property markets are expected to see turnaround and start pricing in a volume recovery in second half of 2016 at the earliest, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch in a report.

It expects the stock markets to start pricing in a volume recovery similar to 2009, supported by further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India in future

Realty experts believe that the year 2016 will begin on a positive note for the sector and may witness a pick up in sales with an improvement in the number of unsold inventories

CommonFloor, co-founder and head of CommonFloor Groups, Vikas Malpani sees the real estate bill approval as a positive for the sector, which along with other trends could shape the real estate sector in 2016

Demand for Indian real estate set to improve: Knight Frank

MUMBAI OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

Going forward, we expect further improvement in demand, even though launches would be marginally lower. In H2 2015, absorption is projected to improve by 25%, to 38,936 units, and launches, to decline marginally by 3%, to 34,289 units compared to H1 2014

 Notwithstanding the slowdown in sales, the weighted average prices in the MMR inched up 10% during 2014, moving from ` 7,085/sq ft to ` 7,796/sq ft. Even as demand will improve going forward, the magnitude of price growth will be low. H1 2015 will witness price growth at 4%, reaching ` 8,106/sq ft.

PUNE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

We expect the number of new launches to drop further, to 13,300 units during H1 2015. The huge amount of unsold inventory of the previous quarters will compel developers to restrict the number of new projects in the coming quarters in order to liquidate the existing unsold inventory

 However, the positive sentiment in the residential market due to the cut in policy rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to usher in a double-digit growth in the sales volume during H1 2015. We forecast that the sales volume will increase by 13% in H1 2015, to 16,560 units, compared to 14,700 units in H1 2014.

 We expect the weighted average prices in Pune to increase by a moderate 4% rate in the coming six months, on the back of the improved sales volume.

NOIDA OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

 Due to no land allotment foreseen in the coming year, very few new project launches will happen in Noida, though project deliveries will start taking shape in the coming quarters, which might attract buyers

 The Noida–Greater Noida Expressway will start witnessing project deliveries in 2015. • Ticket sizes between Rs 30 lakh and Rs 60 lakh will attract buyers to Greater Noida, while the more budget conscious buyers will be looking towards Yamuna Expressway.

BENGALURU OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

 Office absorption in Bengaluru is expected to reduce in H1 2015,as compared to the quantum of office space leased out in H1 2014. However, this should not be considered as weakening of the market as H1 2014 had witnessed a surge in office space transactions owing to the pent up demand in the market post a cautious 2013. Thus, 2015 is envisaged to be a stable market.

 Besides, a number of large lease deals, particularly by the e-commerce sector, are on the cards and the completion of the transaction procedures can spill over to the second half of 2015

 This will be complemented by an increase in new completions, an improvement of 17% in H1 2015 as against the figure in H1 2014

 Overall vacancy level is projected to decrease to 9.6% in H1 2015, the lowest level in the country, that can be attributed to the staggered new completions and steady absorption rate. • Going forward, the demand envisaged in the forthcoming period will have a direct impact on rentals. We expect weighted average rentals to appreciate by 11%, from Rs 47/sq ft/month in H1 2014 to around Rs 52/ sq ft/month by H1 2015.

CHENNAI OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

 We expect the number of new launches to drop further, by one-fifth, to 9,158 units during H1 2015 as compared to 11,377 units launched in H1 2014. The huge unsold inventory of the previous quarters will impede developers from launching new projects in the Chennai market

 However, for a price-conscious Chennai home buyer, the cut in policy rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and further, the dovish stance of the RBI governor, are expected to have a positive impact on the residential market. We forecast that the sales volume will increase by 10% in H1 2015, to 11,357 units compared to 10,315 units in H1 2014.

 Constricted supply coupled with moderate growth in the absorption will push prices up. We expect weighted average prices for Chennai residential to increase by 4% in H1 2015

HYDERABAD OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

 We do not expect the steep de-growth in launches and absorption to continue, because the easing of the political situation, and initiatives such as the recent rate cut by the RBI will pay dividends in time to come

 We believe that launches and absorption will approach H1 2014 levels and see a deficit of 5% and 2% YOY respectively by the end of H1 2015.

 Prices are also expected to grow by 5% during the same period